I’m the large air blower of index funds, quite Vanguard’s 500 Index as good as any EAFE (international) index.
I feel, however, which indexes similar to the S&P 500 could be “tweaked the bit” by incompatible those sectors or industries of the manage to buy which have traditionally not finished good in the prolonged time.
For example, I’d be meddlesome in an S&P 500 index account MINUS industries similar to food prolongation (which has posted disastrous earnings in increase AND shareholder worth for the past 10 years!) as good as multiform others. Is this the receptive to advice strategy?
On the similiar note, is there any website which shows the COMPLETE story of mercantile sectors of the batch market? I’m meddlesome in anticipating if any a single zone has consistently knocked about alternative sectors of the marketplace over twenty or even thirty years of time (not meddlesome in YTD, 3 or 5 year charts, though).
Thanks for your help.
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This sounds like an interesting strategy to help you beat the market average. The main reason I don’t like index funds is that when you are that diversified it will make it very difficult to ever beat the market average. Excluding unfavourable industries should help you beat the market, but not by a ton, as you will still be fairly statistically tied to the average. It certainly shouldn’t hurt to exclude unfavourable industries though.
I personally prefer to invest in individual companies instead of entire industries, but to each his own! I do think your strategy should work. I do not know if they have an S & P 500 fund minus your select industries. Perhaps you should just invest in industry specific ETF’s?
The strategy is fine except you must realize that you are defeating the purpose. What you are doing is simply what managed mutual funds do. They compare to the benchmark and then attempt to choose stocks that will outperform the benchmark. 75% of mutual fund managers do not beat the benchmarks. You very well might do well but it’s hard to predict which sectors will outperform/ underperform on a year to year basis. On a longer term view you might miss the upside of a sector that underperforms for a long time and suddenly goes up big. Check the site below for some ofthe sector return values. That only shows one day but I’m sure you can get longer stretches out of that site.
What you want is the XL ETFs such as XLU (Sp 500 utilities), XLI (SP 500 industry) and XLF (Sp 500 finance). That way you can own certain sectors of the SP 500, but not all of it. You might find the charts you are looking for in the business section of a college or university library. Even your local large library might have such charts.
The strategy you are asking about is called qualitative analysis. Vanguard’s Growth & Income fund takes the S&P500 stocks and uses that strategy to find the best in their opinion. The G&I fund holds about 117 stocks and the returns are close to the index fund.
500 Index (G&I fund) Returns to 4/30/07.
1 year 15.07% (14.65%)
3 years 12.25% (12.23%)
5 years 8.41% (8.70%)
10 years 7.96% (8.70%)
since inception of G&I fund on 12/1986
11.66% (11.87%)
I don’t know of a website that will give you the sector data that you’re interested in for free, but Telechart (for about the price of a soda per day) provides industry data from the Hemscott data source and goes back to 1990. I’ve found this invaluable in my sector and technical analyses.
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There are index funds that attempt to do what you wish to do. They just are not the S&P 500 index fund.
Here are some examples:
EEZ a relatively new index fund by Wisdom Tree. Invests only in the 100 companies with the highest earnings yield. Sounds exactly what you might be looking for. The portfolio is reconstitued each year disposing of those companies that do not make the grade.
PIV might also offer what you are looking for. It is indexed to the Value Line timeliness recommendations.
If you would like some foreign exposure (recommended), then ADRD might be a good choice.
One thing to keep in mind with index funds especially is that many are capitalization weighted, especially the S&P 500. As a result most of your investment is concentrated in about 20 securities. The other 480 are window dressing so to speak. RSP addresses this problem, if you consider it a problem.
Index fund investing is built around the central tenet that there is no reliable way to predict in advance which stocks are going to outperform the market. Your idea of excluding out-of-favor sectors strikes me as a reasonable attempt to improve on the indexes. Just keep in mind that an out-of-favor sector may very well be primed for a rebound and may actually outperform the market while you’re avoiding it. After all, there’s a reason they include the disclaimer in mutual fund prospectuses, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”.
Index funds suck for the reason that you cited. Even though their fees are extremely low, the always underperform the index by the amount of the fee.
Example- S&P 500 does 10%, Vanguard expenses are .10%
Your return = 9.90%
SIMPLE.
Look for fund managers, ETFs or otherwise that have historically outperformed the index. 20% of funds have on average over the long term outperformed. Either hire a pro or do the research yourself.