If we hold which acceleration is starting to ascend over the subsequent couple of years, what stocks, commodities, as well as alternative instruments should we deposit in to distinction many from which growth if it occurs?
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
TiPS
I’d suggest Loan Participation funds. These funds invest in Senior Corporate debt instruments, with floating interest rates. As interest rates rise, so do the yields paid on portfolio securities.
As an example, PHD is now paying around 12% in income-only yield on CURRENT levels of interest rates (18% at market, but the difference is just return of your own money). When inflation rises, and the Fed raises rates to combat it, the distributions from this fund should keep pace.
Commodities usually keep up with inflation, but they will continue to do poorly during the recession due to weak demand. If inflation picks up, demand may stay weak, but eventually it will improve. Commodities that are essential to the economy (like oil) would probably (IMHO) do better than those that are not essential (like gold). [I own USO in my Roth IRA and planning to buy some DJP soon].
Since rampant inflation will cause bond yields to go up (and prices down), another alternative is to short bonds. [I owe TBT (an ETF that shorts the long Treasury bond) and intend to buy more].
With high unemployment, low consumer spending and a housing market that hasn’t bottomed, hyper-inflation certainly won’t occur this year.
As a friendly reminder of what happened last time, this is what you’ll profit from the most next decade: http://www.stock-market-crash.net/images/nasdaq-bubble.gif
When the Feds raise interest rates month after month or you see it going vertical up, sell ALL your stocks and take a holiday to get your mind off making the mistake of buying back in.
I don’t own or plan on buying tech stocks, I’m just happy to buy Aussie shares and buy my house this bull market, but I find this next US market tsunami that’s only just started to emerge from above the ocean surface interesting and want to monitor it over the next few years for learning purposes only.
I sold my US positions 1 week before the crash last year. I was in support of the $700b bail out plan. When it was originally rejected by the senate I saw the Dow go down so I dumped everything. The following week it was accepted with amendments and the market crashed. I guess the market didn’t like it.
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